According to Goldman Sachs projections, the price of gold in 3 months, 6 months and 12 months later, the target price is $ 1,480 / ounce, $ 1,565 / oz and $ 1,690 / oz in 2011 full year average price of about $ 1,575 / ounce.
Goldman Sachs believes that 2011 will continue to force annuity market, although the quantitative easing policy of the Federal Reserve after the restart the U.S. real interest rates rise unexpectedly, the U.S. 10-year TIPS yield close to 100 points, still in low. ; in the above level, COMEX gold futures (1379.70, -0.80, -0.06%), the net long speculative position will rise to nearly 300 million ounces, but is decreasing recently. So the gold market is undervalued, is expected to net long positions in 2011 years continued to rise and push gold higher. maintain a low interest rate policy under the influence of 10-year U.S. Treasury yields will hover in the range of 2.5 to 3 percent.
Merrill Lynch in October 2008 began the first time, the target gold price in the end of 2010 will rise to $ 1,500 / oz at the top, near the bank remained above expectations.
U.S. Linda Zong Bank of America analysts said the commodity sector, risk aversion, market, money supply and commodity prices are around the three gold major factor. To sum up, gold is sometimes a currency, and sometimes more as a commodity reflects the property, sometimes exist as a hedge reserve.
pointed out above, the financial crisis, gold prices have experienced a sharp rise in three waves and once in August 2007 when the credit crisis, gold from $ 650 / ounce rose to $ 950 / ounce; second wave began in late 2008, the weaker dollar, the global risk of currency devaluation caused flooding, the international price of gold climbed to 1,200 dollars / ounce above; the third wave and final wave, along with the economic recovery of energy and commodity prices, gold prices will eventually expected to climb to 1,500 U.S. dollars / ounce.
provide further expansion of supply and demand Merrill Lynch Gold
vibration latest research results show that the output of gold during the pronounced seasonal pattern, each a sharp drop in the supply of gold during the quarter, often corresponds to the price of gold rose.
the World Gold Council Public statistics show that the history of mankind, to the current amount of gold mined about 16.5 million tons, to the current $ 1,370 / ounce basis, the value of more than 800 billion U.S. dollars, less than 2% annual rate of increase.
in The mining of gold, 60% more to the general state of existence of goods, such as exists in the jewelry products, historical relics, electronic chemicals and other industrial products, there is .40% less than the area of financial flows in the world, of which 18% or 30,000 tons of gold reserves as central banks, 16% for individual investors, about 2.7 million tons, so the real flow of thousands of tons of it only.
Separate data showed the decision of the COMEX gold futures pricing in 2010, a quarter due to active trading, contracts involving physical delivery greatly increased, and was questioned COMEX warehouse of gold supplies are short.
In fact, the exchange of publicly available data, the first quarter of 2010 registered COMEX inventory stock specifications Hop began to increase, respectively, increased to 2.83 million ounces from 2.94 million ounces, from 5,710,000 ounces increased to 5.94 million ounces.
Even so, the first quarter of 2010 reached a record peak of the COMEX inventory, only 38% of long positions, evidenced by the scarcity of gold.
is worth noting that, according to the World Gold Council statistics, the total global gold demand in 2009 3474 tons, corresponding to the total supply of 4,021 tons, the total demand in 2010 4085 tons of gold, supply 4335 tons, Displays the current gold market is a surplus, the actual trend in contradiction with the gold.
this regard, Merrill Lynch interpretation that the physical gold market pricing is currently being mastered in London, the London gold huge OTC scale is difficult to statistics, it is not purely from the World Gold Council to provide a simple supply and demand come to the table of gold supply and demand, but by what power and a lot of powerful driving force in promoting the market to buy gold.
enthusiasm for the central bank purchase of gold will support the gold market demand
since the third quarter of 2009, the global central banks from net sellers to net buyers of gold in 2010, large-scale bid for central banks to join the ranks of gold, which makes re-tightening the supply of gold, but also to the gold investment bringing a strong psychological hint.
World Gold Council by the end of August 2010 report released in the second quarter of the total global gold demand increased 36% year over year, reaching 1,050 tons. in which the factors high-profile European Central Bank is reluctant to continue to reduce the gold, while the emerging market central banks to buy gold.
publicly available data, IMF commissioned in the OTC market, selling 400 tonnes of gold has been in emerging market countries in the bag, emerging markets, the strong will of the gold reserves highlights.
contrast, over the past 20 years, central banks have sold gold reserves of large-scale, can bring stability to the returns to buy sovereign debt.
SW Futures Associate Director Zhang Minjie that developed in the present economies in the case of weak economic recovery, a stable store of value for its gold to win back the favor of central banks.
Merrill Lynch analysts pointed out that the U.S. monetary policy of quantitative easing in fact constitute a devaluation of other countries, in order to preserve and the establishment of long-term currency, the driving force in the future purchase of gold from a number of factors central banks in emerging countries.
Merrill Lynch also said that emerging and developing countries foreign exchange reserves, gold reserves of less than 2%, far lower in many developed countries. If the BRICs alone to increase the gold in its foreign exchange reserves ratio from 2.4% to 5%, they may be the year the world will run out of minerals, and this will significantly increase the price of gold.
analysis, according to Merrill Lynch, increasing foreign exchange reserves can increase the value of gold reserves, to more effective risk-benefit ratio. can reduce the volatility of the currency. Merrill Lynch Bank of emerging countries that higher prices will not stop buying gold.
determine the price of gold when the reach the peak of divergence
While agencies generally see more than 2011 gold, but when the see the price of gold top, and the market after 2011, Sector analysts have pointed out that real interest rates began to rise in 2011, gold prices began to decline, in current dollar prices, the price of gold will be back to 450 dollars / ounce.
Goldman Sachs economists believe that with strong domestic demand in the United States, United States Next take a good fiscal policy to stimulate the U.S. economy will be higher in mid-2011, 2011, an increase of nearly 2.7%, 3.6% in 2012 to reach over.
is expected to rise to 3.75%. in the U.S. real interest rate cycle to reverse the environment, the price of gold peaked in 2012. will be similar to the late 1980s, but its level of volatility will be less than before. when the Fed Chairman Volcker announced that it will curb inflation, U.S. real interest rates began to rise; and 2012, real interest rates caused by the U.S. the end of quantitative easing monetary policy and the economy gradually recovery. U.S. inflation will be lower than the U.S. target rate 2%.
rate variety moderate inflation will continue. start.
peak of inflation or in the second quarter of the bond market
main factors macroeconomic side, monetary policy and market funds face and so on. Industry experts said that managing inflation expectations will remain the main macroeconomic policy in 2011 One of the goals.
China Reform Foundation, Fan Gang, National Economic Research Institute said recently that there has been no comprehensive economic overheating trend, do not require full contraction, but still need to prevent over-investment year.
countries Fan Jianping, director of Information Center has predicted that next year the economy may still be very complicated year, but there is very little possibility of hyperinflation.
and believes in the international banking business in China is expected Liao Qun, chief strategist, the Chinese economy in 2011 in the global economy and turmoil in financial markets continued high growth, the growth rate will only decline than the 0.7 percentage point this year to 9.4%. prices, international commodity prices and wages rise, driven by accelerating the rate of inflation will rise to 3.8%. to low, high inflation may occur in the second quarter.
flat
bond market supply and demand data, according to incomplete statistics, the total size of bond issuance in 2011 of about 5 trillion yuan, the net issue size is expected to approximately more than 3 trillion.
bond supply side, the scale of treasury bonds will continue to remain at 1.6 trillion combined debt due next year, about 0.7 trillion, total net debt in 2011 reached 900 billion yuan financing scale; Agricultural Development debt, debt, and country for the import and export debt issue size will be 2500 billion, 130 billion and 7,000 billion; corporate bonds and corporate bond issuance will reach 1.5 trillion yuan.
demand from institutions, the main body demand for structural adjustment, commercial banks can invest new money for debt reduction over the year; with premium income and profitability up, the configuration of the insurance fund demand for bonds to continue to expand over the year; fund demand for bonds will decrease.
including government bonds, financial bonds, local government bonds, central bank bills and credit debt total inter-bank bond 18630000000000 hosted, and managed the amount of commercial banks was 13.95 trillion, accounting for about 75%.
M2 next year, if an increase of 17%, the new credit 7 trillion yuan, deposits, loan growth will be about 17%, even if the reserve ratio by end of next year remain unchanged, the bank can be used to invest new money bonds was 2.34 trillion, decrease compared with 2010.
interest rate products, interest rates for the species in 2011, the market is a popular saying is In the middle of next year, inflation and economic growth will maintain the upward trend, the rate hike cycle will continue to expand, so the interest rate curve during this period will be flat on the move. economic news, $ 1,430.55 at Refresh / oz record high annual increase of 25%, the biggest gain in almost equal 40%.
bullish market next year, the same gold that the gold market in 2011 will continue to force, but the gains appear to judge differences, Goldman Sachs forecast to rise to $ 1,690 by the end of / ounce, while another industry believes that the gold price rise next year will be much more than this year.
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