We live in this world, things in the world have followed the specific pattern. The movement from space to the propagation of light way, everything has its existence in the law, regardless of any area of the law are under the domination of running. A lot of phenomena due to the number of frequent too intensive, so as to cause that we have become accustomed to, grown accustomed to. appear to be a coincidence, the real performance is the essence of things. through all the objects lose their support or resistance to the law must fall to the ground , Isaac Newton discovered the law of gravity. Edmont by Harley through a large number of operations, predicted that a comet appeared in 1682, will return to in 1759, which concluded in the Halle final 17 years after the death of be verified. Edison extensive research on electricity, and ultimately invented the electric light, telephone, the phonograph. the reason they have amazing foresight and inventions, and both are a large number of phenomena by observation and summary of the law to be the ultimate understanding of the nature of things . As long as we can correctly understand, and to understand the laws of nature, all things change in the future can be more accurately predicted.
human behavior is also a regular, through their psychological research, they can predict in advance possible future decisions.
everyone that their thinking is independent, consider themselves different, that their views and understanding of things, beyond the ordinary in some respects. In fact most people There is no great difference.
when you satiated, the saw will feel a ham? I think most people would turn a blind eye. But when you see it when cold and hunger, and there will be What a feeling? I believe that all people will salivate, without exception.
when our dreams come true, who is not excited? When we lose our favorite things, who is not bitter ?
be someone else's child is sick, you probably indifferent, but when their children are sick, who is not worried?
overnight if we lost all the wealth, who can be calm ? If we had nothing, when wealthy overnight, who can do it calmly? our pain and joy, who is not based on the interests on the basis of gains and losses? a large extent between man and man are the same, between the interests of the foundation of all gains and losses, but also our source of pain and pleasure.
stock market volatility and our interests, has a close relationship exception. therefore the most direct expression of the human natures of the Department, Therefore, the movement of the market also have to follow the law, these laws have already been summarized predecessors, as long as careful observation, objective analysis, we can stand on the shoulders of our predecessors and easy way to hide behind the laws of nature to be revealed. < br> Technical analysis is the previous use of statistical theory, the market for a large number of statistical induction, from a higher success rate, summed up the analysis. like the way geese in flight, geese do not know what is the aerodynamics, but all year long flight, keep trying, so they found with a shape, or chevron flight to save the most energy, the long run, on the formation of such a unique way of flying. is the same form of technical analysis, investors after a lot of observation, found that some graphics Once a phenomenon and to buy stock or short stock profits are very high probability that they be classified this phenomenon, it has gradually formed a kind of technical analysis.
of technical analysis indicators can be divided into , morphological analysis, trend analysis, and time cycle analysis. On the surface, their different methods of analysis are in real terms, are from a different perspective on the market characteristics of the summary. only a single technical analysis of the use of future stock price volatility, proved accurate model is not high, because any kind of technical analysis has its shortcomings. Sometimes a technical analysis, trading opportunity is given to more accurate, but sometimes has a high error rate. This occurs frequently, so sometimes we can not correctly judge. These original people go bankrupt in the financial markets, with blood and tears summed up the experience, despite the shortcomings, but they are different degrees of their market understanding and observation.
traditional technical analysis, much like the way we judge the authenticity of gold. Some hand weights weigh it, some observe its color, and some test its hardness, all methods are some of the single feature for the understanding of gold. In fact using a single method, the probability of failure is very high. like only to know the density and hardness of gold, without knowing its color, judged by these two features, there may have been deceived by the use of lead, regardless of the hardness and density of lead and gold are relatively similar. Conversely if you only know the color of gold, and only as a basis for judging will be confused with the brass.
Therefore we can say whether any single method, are not very accurate judgments, investment opportunities if we want to grasp a more accurate, it is necessary to further a better understanding. Through the study of technical analysis to understand the nature of the market, rather than mechanically use. only clearly and simply to know market nature, have hope for long-term profitability. the source of where to find it before it can be used flexibly. so we can market a large number of statistics, and careful analysis of the reasons for the formation of technical analysis in order to understand the nature of movement of the stock market . then the internal laws of the market to understand comprehensive judged from all angles, not limited to a single method, so that the probability of success will be greatly enhanced.
all the technical analyst or technical analysis theory of the founders, are not explicitly tell us what the nature of the market, in fact they may not know the underlying causes of these laws is the instinctive reaction to the investing public.
by the previous system of technical analysis for the morphological analysis, trend analysis of the analysis, as long as we do not mind to any prejudice and stubbornness, it is easy to conclude that the formation of the so-called technical analysis is the result of instinctive reaction to the investing public. Therefore, the correct learning technical analysis, investors should understand the face of this volatility reflects the instincts and psychological changes .
2
actually a correct view of fundamental analysis, psychological changes affect not only investors, the volatility of stock price, stock investors basically the face also can cause deep psychological impact, and ultimately affect the stock price volatility Therefore, we should also concern changes in fundamentals. Note that we are talking about here is not to say the attention on the fundamentals of traditional fundamental analysis to understand the methods of analysis, but by understanding the fundamental understanding of the investing public and opinions, to understand the investor after the sale of a change in the fundamentals of desire to change.
so-called traditional fundamental analysis, stock prices depend on the intrinsic value of listed companies and the future prospects of good business prospects of listed companies on stock high, poor business prospects for the low price, not supply and demand determine price fluctuations.
fundamental analysis must be based on complete, true and comprehensive information basis. but the basic analysis of who, how the information from the vast , analyzing the accuracy of the information? falsified financial statements of listed companies in the behavior of common, do not say fake general performance of the Chinese market, only mid-major to endless. lawlessness Joan source Guangxia 000,557, 600,083 red, 600,065 Daqing friendship, 600,709 shares and so on and so on Lam. In 2001, the departments concerned a sample of 16 domestic accounting firms issued 32 audit reports. examination found that there are 14 accounting firms issued 23 audit reports of material misstatements, caused by false accounting amounting to 7.143 billion yuan of information, involving 41 certified public accountants. This phenomenon will not only immature market phenomenon, even in mature markets is the same, even some famous past excellent credit Large companies are also not uncommon, Enron, Xerox, WorldCom, Merck, and so the case of large companies falsifying financial statements, is only in recent years occurred before. more numerous financial scandals. renowned rating agencies Weiss (Weiss) in the In mid-June 2002 that one third of U.S. earnings reports of listed companies may be tampered with. fundamental analysts how to avoid these mines?
basic analysis of loyal supporters that as long as there is full information and rational mind, to be accurate for each stock pricing. do not know what they thought not, even if it can ensure the information is correct, a company if a takeover or merger, restructuring of the situation, whether to past data, the stock soared found before the change of its intrinsic value? history proves time and again, a company official announcement before the mergers and acquisitions, stock prices often have been increased substantially. we open the chart, look at the 600,779 Clever, 000,590 purple medicine , 600735 Lan Ling Chen Hong, 000,004 North Tech, and so the trend of the past, can understand what the trend of all-inclusive. Only in 2000, Shenzhen and Shanghai have more than a hundred replacing the largest shareholder of listed companies, accounting for all time more than ten percent of listed companies. coupled with the internal reorganization of assets each year, as many as several hundred, some of the company's restructuring is an out and out. Baosight such as 600,845, the largest shareholder in the restructuring, the production of steel from a traditional business, becoming overnight a full high-tech company, production of computer automation, network communication systems, research and development of hardware and software products and other new industries, in addition to the security code unchanged today, the rest completely different place . the shares before the reorganization announcement, rising more than doubled. This is nothing fundamental analysts do not know is how the news is released before the correct analysis of the reasons for rising stock prices, and have the ability to early follow-up?
Analysts believe that the basic fundamentals of price, but do not know what they thought not, stock prices are also affecting the fundamentals, and have a profound impact. a very good stock performance, stock prices of about fifty dollars per share rights issue price up to thirty or forty dollars. and another company because the stock price high, only about ten dollars, and its placement price is up to eighty-nine yuan. the same total amount of share capital and allotment case of the former than the latter was raised funds should be much higher, the new sunrise industry investment funds and research funds to clear will be a lot more, very beneficial to the company. These advantages certainly a strong impetus to rapid growth once fundamentals, this is the price of Examples of the fundamentals.
a company's performance is good, long-term bullish on stock prices, a leader in the market. such as Sichuan Changhong, in this market, everyone knows Sichuan Changhong is the leading TV production companies, how many people because the stock market the product consciously understand the situation in Sichuan Changhong, and ultimately trust in the company's products. A few years ago, Changhong's air conditioning has not yet introduced, the market has everyone must be available Changhong air conditioner, which can not be any ads instead of the effect, because the demonstration effect of the stock. good product can not only make the company famous for a good market image of the products also can make it known, and then to stimulate sales.
fundamentals of price, the stock's strength and come back to affect the fundamentals, analysts do not know how the basic analysis of this phenomenon to promote each other, if the above basic analysis of the points can not be rational and objective analysis, even if we can not say that fundamental analysis is meaningless, at least fundamental analysis can be said to be imperfect.
basic analysis that is gold will certainly light, early entry is the most sensible. But they never thought of, the world has so many natural resources such as oil, they hundreds of years ago and now what is the difference? even know it was in the value of several hundred years ago, for what is the significance of his life, can bring wealth to give him? assuming world oil reserves as rich as the sea, its price if they would like this expensive? Now if only 10% of the world's oil reserves do?
change the face of the fundamentals of the internal fluctuations in the stock price, the real is just an excuse for speculation reasons. But we can not ignore the basic analysis, fundamental analysis because, although there is no real meaning in itself, but the views of investors on the fundamentals, it can affect the desire of investors buying and selling stocks, and ultimately causing the stock price volatility.
this is nothing new. For example, there are two the stock started to decline at the same time, a stock is a blue chip stocks, shares of another stock is junk, you can say for sure that these two stocks tend to fall faster garbage shares a big margin, while the blue chip stocks usually fall more slowly, and a lesser extent . This is mainly because the shares are mostly held garbage speculators, they often do not have the confidence of shareholders, a sign of trouble to get away, even heavier loss of flesh are willing to bear the pain. And hold out for a variety of investors also worry about not easy to approach, so the junk stocks usually decline rapidly. The blue-chip stocks is different, the larger the confidence of the holders of this stock, so once the stock price fell, not easily flesh, and even shared a lot of people would be willing to bargain hunting low cost, the investment holding money for people who dare to buy a blue chip stocks, so the atmosphere in the same market share fall to less than the waste, the rate of decline will be less than the junk stocks. This is the view of investors on the fundamentals of price fluctuations instance. In the course of all equities, 95% of the investors will give due consideration to changes in fundamentals, albeit to varying degrees and to completely ignore the fundamental analysis is only a very few who went into the technical analysis. Therefore, we should note is the investor's understanding of the fundamentals, rather than fundamental analysis itself.
analysis of the basic desire of investors to trade is a very common thing, and some people were worried about stock price performance of listed companies fell down, eager to sell rather than buy; Some people worry about placement of shares listed on turn cause oversupply, and eager to sell the stock; some people due to floods, the company worried about performance flood affected areas, and sell the stock; some people because of listed companies fundamentals have improved, that the stock will rise, so buying the stock; Some people believe that a company interim results due to better and buy; some people to buy China's accession to WTO and the WTO to benefit shares; there are those who began to find a good macro-economic, and buy stocks. These are the fundamental psychological changes affect investors, causing their transactions.
the investing public's views on the fundamentals, and their instinctive reaction to the face of fluctuations in stock prices, the sale of their desire, the desire has affected the sale of supply and demand, supply and demand caused by the final decisive price fluctuations, rather than the intrinsic value of the stock.
the source of life water and oxygen, which is not for the meaning of life being understood in the value of their diamonds are definitely not comparable, but the price of diamonds is quite different. a priceless diamond bright, one only a few cents the price of water, and oxygen simply no price This is because the supply and demand determines the price. a perfect diamond is perhaps unique in the world, everyone wants, so the increase. The oxygen and water is everywhere, so I will not be easy to have a higher price, so that supply and demand relationship determines the price.
not only in the stock market price is determined by supply and demand, both in the futures market, art market, or markets, the price of all things in the world depends on supply and demand, rather than any intrinsic value. < br> So you want to succeed, you can not follow the traditional fundamental analysis, to analyze a message to give the company certain what kind of meaning, so worthless. It depends on how the investing public of what the news people, investment who will eventually become real understanding of the buying and selling of stock price volatility caused by supply and demand. whether investors view the market outlook is correct, as long as the bullish than bearish on the strength of the power, it will cause more demand than supply, cause stock prices; as long as bearish than bullish force strength, it will cause oversupply, causing stock prices fall, at least temporarily, can change the stock price volatility. just like in 1999 the network shares on NASDAQ , even though it has proven that investment in Internet stocks over the NPC is wrong, but the stock price in their purchasing power driven by fanaticism rose sharply, and some stock or up to ten times or even several times, as long as we can correct analysis, early has received enormous benefits from, and why on the side of useless nonsense to say something? above is my understanding for the use of fundamental analysis.
addition to the technical analysis and fundamental analysis, there are many factors that affect investors trading decisions. As long as investors believe that these factors will affect the stock price volatility, then we should know something about this. as long as most investors believe it will affect the stock price volatility, it will cause their trading behavior, investors optimistic afternoon, whether rational or irrational, moderate or excessive, will result in real purchasing power; investors bearish outlook, whether or not blind, there are substantive issues Ye Hao, Ye Hao gossip, or influence by others hysterical emotion Ye Hao, or unfounded Ye Hao, will lead to selling, the formation of price fluctuations in supply and demand, regardless of this view is right or wrong.
3
stock market manipulation of price fluctuations in supply and demand relationship is the real reason is no doubt However, the relationship between supply and demand affect stock prices is not only the investing public, when the big institutions to get a very clear message, and a lot of money, is often an important factor in changing the supply and demand. because retail is just a mess, just out in the market, they only there will be a small number of small wind waves, and only a massive amount of money involved large organizations, giving rise to huge investment opportunities, we want to capture is one such investment opportunities.
the manipulation of large institutions and market behavior is closely related to the prosperity of . The stock market is a place full of atmosphere of speculation, then a perfect system can not stop speculation. because it is precisely because the existence of such stock market psychology, which makes stock market trading activity. If the complete elimination of speculative manipulation, management too dead to make waves of fashion market, the market downturn caused by difficulties in corporate finance, obstruct economic development. Therefore, manipulation can not be eliminated, can only be appropriate supervision and guidance.
as long as the opportunities for speculation, there must be institutions to large flock to profit by manipulating stock prices to win. Our institutions not to mention the emerging Chinese stock market is how they have stirred up trouble in the market, the shortage of examples. Even in the United States known as the most mature and healthy stock market, have control from beginning to end behavior throughout the history of the securities. stock market crash of 1929, Morgan Stanley Group and the domination of the failure of other financial products; the father of Michael Milken junk bonds, which involve the biggest Wall Street insider trading case ever charged guilty of imprisonment this case a direct result of the 1987 stock market crash; George Soros since the nineties after the first attack on the pound, leading to the British forced to withdraw from the European exchange rate system; then emptying the Mexican currency, the paradise known as the foreign investors Mexico overnight into hell; 1997 single-handedly causing the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, followed by raids in Hong Kong. This series of operations, no one would say that George Soros is no manipulation.
opportunistic market in any country has. In 1999, a speculator first few cents per share, bought a large number of shares of listed companies the verge of bankruptcy, and then re-released on the internet false information acquisition, resulting in a large number of follow suit, so that sharp fluctuations in the stock, he quickly obtain huge profits selling stocks, and ultimately by the U.S. Commission severe punishment. until 2001, this case is still manipulating the stock market after another, CDC, and including some of the world-class companies Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, the U.S. Lin CDC listed securities underwriting companies, charges for alleged stock manipulation by the U.S. court of minority shareholders; the U.S. Congress held hearings to investigate whether Wall Street analysts issued shares of listed companies exist in manipulation, as possession of such stock underwriting or investment company to seek profit to create public opinion and gain from dividend income; Morgan Stanley side of the female analyst recommendations to investors, while selling the same stocks they hold; New York State Attorney General Eliot Elliott Spitzer, April 8, 2002 announced that the U.S. investment giant - Merrill Lynch allegedly for personal gain by damaging the interests of customers, the New York State Supreme Court has ordered Merrill Lynch to reform its business practices.
these cases In recent years, it is only exposed a small part of the problem, like the tip of the iceberg. but can be seen throughout the market manipulation have not disappeared, just hide the extent and manipulation is out of line it.
have by definition knowledge manipulation of the stock market is a securities fraud refers to any unit or individual for the purpose of profit or reduce losses, the use of its funds, and information advantage, or abuse of power market manipulation, affect the stock price. create false securities, induction and causing investors to understand the truth of the situation, making the wrong investment decisions and disrupt the behavior of stock market order.
Although clearly defined, in fact, difficult to really distinguish between regulatory authorities and certification bodies of the manipulation. If I announced the news is true, then count as manipulation? If not, then, some companies in order to meet the agency's purchase or shipping convenience, and await the publication of favorable news agencies but is a fact, how to understand this behavior? If I emphasize personal point of view, such as some of the market analysis and views? be considered unconfirmed or you can play dissemination of misleading information? if the operator, then from securities analysts do not analyze the market, not from On City it? If not, then, some analysts for some ulterior purpose of glossy, somewhat hidden to public dissemination of some information or some information out of context, these behaviors, how securities regulators distinction?
in the development of securities regulations, did not think there are other acts also able to control the market, a popular Wall Street has a very famous quote: . to follow up on them as the basis for trading. When these people optimistic about a stock, and after buying large numbers, often through some channels to tell the majority of investors are extremely optimistic about the stock he holds stock, the result will inevitably lead to stock by other investors to buy the power of the push. along with stock prices, they also took the opportunity to quietly sell the hands of lucrative stock. any truly successful predators, which had been using this method, Who was accused of market manipulation so? George Soros for manipulating stock prices used this method. He was speculation in the early 90 pounds. at the time speaking, the depreciation of sterling is indeed a great pressure, but if you only rely on the power of the Quantum Fund itself is not possible to win the championship final, because the quantum of funds raised fund itself is only 100 billion dollars, while the British government's foreign exchange reserves have more than him several times. If you can fight for the British Government certain period of time, is entirely through the crisis. But Soros in their own currency after inhaling enough, they begin to promote their own around the GBP, and use his enormous influence speculators lead to more follow suit, and encouraged some economists to join him, for his charge forward, forming a huge sell-off, eventually forcing the devaluation of sterling.
other insider trading is also one of the acts prohibited in foreign listed companies trading their own company's stock is the normal behavior of listed companies often have some information not known to outsiders, more or less of their transactions involve some inside information, so whether this is illegal? If so, do they own the company no longer trading stock up? regulators how insider trading can completely avoid this behavior? many of Enron major shareholder, will not that have been using inside information to trade, until the company went bankrupt before you exposed?
mature After the stock market in the securities law norms, manipulation is still strictly prohibited. But that is not so simple, because the securities laws can not be drawn between legal and illegal in a very clear boundaries, as long as this line is not absolutely clear, that is trying to manipulate the market who fuss place. In most cases, as long as body control when enough is enough, do not be too presumptuous is not brought him hidden dangers.
a way, that the financial markets the most successful winner, the fact on is the most successful liar. they deceive the investing public through various means, when we truly believe, they will deceive all the people into his trap set by, and then quietly leave. So he succeeded, he All profits are those who believe in Him into deficit, and he used the methods and charlatans is no different, but it is more subtle. Of course we can also be called the strategy of these practices.
there any market manipulation, just a difference in degree, in the more mature markets, institutions can only be induced in some way affected and investors, but can not fully grasp the volatility of stock prices. But the key to profitability is the same as they are by retail investors Fear and greed, buying organizations so that they sell at a high level of stock, selling stock in the low flesh to the body, so that organizations can successfully sell high, buy low, sell in order to obtain profits.
not in the stock market new things, and today the same happened in the past happened, the future will continue to occur. the nature of the securities market has never changed, always manipulating and being manipulated.
4 correct understanding of institutions as a listed dealer
changes within the company, or macroeconomic changes to occur, the agencies often with their own information network and the sensitivity of the opportunity to quickly find investment opportunities for investment. They are a huge amount of money, purchase not be achieved overnight, so the inevitable will leave traces on the chart, so as to provide a basis for our investment.
institutions really think of the market outlook, will not tell us, but will try to cover. But the disk is a silent language, it will use unique language, will show the real side of us. institutions and the investing public is irreconcilable contradiction, institutional buying in the low, the need for investors to sell shares to him; institutions to sell at a high level, the need to invest in a large number of buying high. To achieve this effect, it must use some means to influence investors, they can not force the investors to buy, only through deception to induce investors to trade, so all methods are based on for investors to know basis. with a small lure them into, and then sold a large number of lucrative stock. by means of harassment they are most offensive to them, forcing them to sell the bottom area of the disastrous stock to yourself. < br> All the above sentiment is only by means of an attempt to hide his true, only of success. as long as we can judge more accurately the views of investors, the volatility of the market can determine the direction of the agency's move. because there is no agencies secretly trading, the stock is bound to the expected direction towards the fluctuations in the investing public. When the stock price volatility and investors contrary to expectations, most investors are bearish on the market outlook have flesh, while the share price continued to fall but no longer, but gradually rise, which is often the result of institutions may be bad Xihuo that the power of new large-scale involvement in the secret; when most investors believe that prices will continue for a jumped up, optimistic and positive buying, stock prices do not rise, but a greater volume and below the support, aid agencies must be a good market sentiment, caused by a large number of shipments. more price volatility investors do not agree, the greater the possibility of reversal. So, we invest the most Good point, that is, extreme market atmosphere, the warmest time in the market, looking for short selling opportunities; in the most dismal market sentiment, look for the opportunity to do more.
why should we keep a close eye holding these large funds There are? First their money is huge, just start entering, whether right or wrong, will directly change the stock supply and demand, drive prices, so that we can keep profit organizations. can be said that the movement of large organizations is the movement of research funding.
In addition, holding a large funding agencies usually have a very strong research capabilities, high professional standards, access to information, from the macro analysis to industry analysis and then to the company analyzes more proficient and better grasp the big trends, more sensitive to investment opportunities. their money huge, and out is not easy, especially exit is very difficult, so usually wait until the very confident, the only careful approach. When they approach, the usually indicates that there will be substantial changes in the stock then, the deeper the involvement of large organizations is that the more substantive themes afternoon.
not to say that the holders of these large funds will certainly benefit, they also make mistakes History has proven that only a high level of organization possible
profit organization full of superstition that many people, that body is invincible, and the idea is wrong. from the historical experience of China's securities market, the real final to get out and get huge profit makers are extremely rare, the vast majority of institutions are numerous losses suffered heavy losses. just follow the objective law, respect for market institutions, chance of success, or they only will be even worse than the small retail end.
agencies actually act ignorant superstition, many investment institutions and even does not understand the road, while the misconception that money is king, thinking that all the big money to manipulate everything to decide . sufficient funds to manipulate the price, you can make up arbitrary price down, but the ship, only the investors agree, be possible to buy, or is bound to fail, we look at the department, Sichuan Hushan, million Security Technology and his ilk to be clear.
many people mistakenly think that every large organization has its own distinct style manipulator, only the full understanding of their various styles and preferences, the right to have a successful condemnation opportunities, this is really nonsense, the real master is not possible to style and characteristics, as they all start points are retail psychology, and the prevailing market sentiment, and how to do in order to meet their own interests to maximize, rather than their own personality. those self-righteous, down speculation of his own character stupid village, will soon be out of the market, so even with the right dealer, what good results?
5 gold buy the
good beginning is to determine the beginning, the right to buy the perfect time to grasp the importance of our work, the ultimate purpose of our study is to find the best buying opportunity. by the previous study, we can already can find stocks rise, but we should not be satisfied with merely the stock will rise, but the most potential to go looking for the stock, because our goal is excellence. Therefore, by setting some of the prerequisite conditions for stock selection is the basis for us to improve the odds.
1, a good buy at the bottom to have a wide choice
we are at the bottom of a long process of form to bottom, this is because the bottom of the hovering at low levels during the longer, the average the lower the cost position, if investors sell the stock to break up a very strong desire, body is easy ...
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