Professor Lang wrong with lifting gold prices depreciate

 Professor Lang wrong with lifting gold prices depreciate?
Mm and discussion on the article, Professor Lang
Zhang Tingbin
in gold and the issue of the house, teach you this time may be wrong, at least locally wrong, as an old friend, I must remind you.
professor is very little about gold before, but in recent months, perhaps because of the rising price of gold has become a hot spot, causing your concern, you started talking about gold, but the basic is to denounce gold. As the gold investment, one of the major Enlightenment, I have not responded, and there are to avoid a direct debate on the causes and old friends.
your recent article ; should now buy a house or buy gold? , views can be different, can have a different logic, the truth become clearer, let the public see a lively discussion or debate team, which is also the option of the public wealth, the best way. and the last property market and future judge mm The movement of the gold market will give a fair verdict.
the outset, I discussed the above article is the domestic real estate and international long-term gold price trend in 3-5 years, not short-term ups and downs of gold prices and . For the short-term rates, my point is there may be a rise, but if the rose 30%, that is the last wave, the next will not fall below 50%; for the gold, I think there may be a short-term under Exploration $ 1,000, but does not affect long-term upward trend in gold.
view the article, Professor Lang mm gold is not the insurance can be described as sharp, high-end house prices cheaper, and can be described as completely contrary to my point of view.
regret is professor of real estate firm's arguments demonstrate the fact that there is a relatively large flawed. The paper said: awarded the country is still, relatively speaking real estate is more preservation. why, when we hit the economy in times of crisis, real estate prices always rise. real estate prices always rise. important results after the crisis intensified, the United States all the way down prices in a crisis is a global consensus;
2,1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, about 70% of real estate prices in Hong Kong, Hong Kong luxury does not show the so-called defensive of 10 millions of people become negative assets, the circumstances are tragic, we can see the play Gigi, family, real estate developers and financial institutions go bankrupt, thus the beginning of the Japanese economy most major asset, I feel the need, and old friends online to play a ring, because the real estate bubble burst after expansion is extremely serious matter, a personal home high in the sets, the collapse of numerous families, the state high in the sets, the economy collapse, financial meltdown, its consequences would be disastrous. I do not want to see a professor who had accumulated by the look and reputation irreparable damage.
As for the property is relatively relative preservation put a lot of drama, but also anti-Japanese war, but also the liberation war, no film in the speech, a large house to the Sino-Japanese War, fled to Chongqing; never led the liberation war, the military, the bureaucracy to the rich fled to Hong Kong, which fled the house carrying? If so, that is a snail.
aggressively in the recent buy nine new army commander loyal to his chief of staff, chief of staff sent a house or a traitor to his chief of staff of the results can be seen in the frequent wars, when the gold than the house Jingui, chief of staff know, the house does not go back to Once a war breaks, the house is the fortifications!
gold in troubled times if I said in response to Professor Lang, there is no safe means that the future of China, I believe the next 10 years, China is the world's safest place, the basic will not war, because the Chinese military has been strong to the extent no one would dare take the initiative to provoke China, Chinese people do not take the initiative to the traditional aggression of others. round gold prices, the main motivation is the dollar bill is likely to crash the system can affect even the future. This time being refrain from that.
talk about the real estate bubble, and now the real estate bubble has a very clear, and asked to understand a word, how many Chinese people can afford to buy a house? after the second quarter of 2009, I published Analysis of several articles and warnings real estate bubble, in this review four, respectively, Wealth has become the number one threat to the Chinese people One topic is Discuss the issue with Professor Lang, as a response to your previous articles; in the next Xiapian, I will analyze the devaluation of gold may be wrong with Professor mm is most likely because you are a Ph.D. and professor born in Coban experience. and I finance and economics in the Western Cobain is difficult to look your key accomplishments far back, so I can only return to common sense, Tracing the source of money, history inquisitive, but may be pointed out that the latest edition of before that up to 3 hours of conversation, I know you started that you are a teacher, where I learned a lot from your valuable knowledge, so far are good enough, in the ; and Change your teacher is the fact that I have. ancients word is the teacher, not to mention I did steal the division three hours? and we open this discussion in itself to have a sense of community is a great contribution to the. (The author is experienced financial commentators and do not represent the position where the media, for reference only, investors making their own risk, contact email ztb6006@vip.sina.com)
Appendix: The Origin and I
Lang Lang Professor and I shall said an old friend, around 2001, landing in the Mainland, Professor Lang was once the defense and financial market coverage and research, and Professor Lang has been the main research direction of dislocation, contact less. but I still have concern and respect for the professor, he is one of the best financial experts (personal thought is likely that the ; one Sometimes talking less calm, do not understand politics, making it difficult place to go mainstream, but people who look very high. That is why, I fear a major real estate bubble in his direction once the mistake, the social impact of the public and their own more large. of course I may be wrong, or we both are wrong, but we both fight a war, let the public see a debate competition, which the public's right to choose the direction of investment will be fully respected, it is our able to make the largest contribution to the.
Zhang Tingbin related real estate Review:
2009 年 7 月 19 日
inflation is a big deal to buy a house trap
now buying real estate is no different from the heap firewood self-immolation
Zhang Tingbin
2007 年 5 month of the Chinese real estate stock market tragedy is repeated!
2007 年 5 月, A mania, retail accounts, continue to soar, 150,000, 200,000, 300,000, 35 million, more and more new investors, the new Christian Democratic accumulation of their hard-earned savings into the stock market note, my heart in tears, my pen in the blood. I can be issued their own voice to these most turbulent ; sheep transformed into heroin in a year r r l is a growing possibility, consequences will be if, like heroin addicts after, never recovered. But in the near future, Magic of the people will continue to binge. just come to an end, fool's paradise when you wake up, had just discovered that the guests had gone, the owner of the premises have been flames burned, hard accumulated wealth has been swept , as in Japan after 1990. November 28 of 1664 points, the Shanghai index only took 1 year and 12 days to fallen by 72.8%, making the year the Nikkei fell 66.58% eclipsed mm spent 8 years!
Well, now Who new investors than the more tragic then, who else in the oil than the sets of 48.6 yuan more tragedy? Yes! is now mad rush to buy real estate, who are fanatical repeat the summer of 2007 wood burning heap of things. different is that they put into a scale of A shares is 10 times the real estate. Because the 3 percent down payment practice of real estate is the application of a 3.3 times leverage, once the A shares of a super roller coaster tragedy, the future will not only lose their light of all the assets, but also become a serious negative equity, owes a heavy debt the last hard-earned.
the current mad rush to buy these properties such as those reasons may be, for example, hyper-inflation expectations. I do not deny the future rise in Chinese real estate still possible, even does not rule out jumped 30-50%.
However, I must seriously warn that China's real estate, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, has been caught in the premises crazy bubble serious. In this alert only five indicators:
1, central cities, particularly Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou, real estate has risen over the past 8 years 600m1000%, it has reached the Peter Lynch's than-expected rise.
3, the lot of many cities yields less than 3% of the rent, rental than the interest paid to buy much cheaper.
4, the iron law of investment assets, when most The most crazy hot when an investment goods, investment goods, which is this crazy bubble into the public mood symptoms. this time, rational investors should be firmly thrown out of such assets, not buy, and now the property market This typical mania is showing symptoms.
5, high prices have made buyers as house slaves. microeconomic yet to bottom out, unemployment increased, pay down the threat remains.
Furthermore, even if I agree that the future inflation expectations, it must be pointed out that the hyperinflation of home buyers is the or inflation in the early stage, the real estate prices will rise. However, once the development of the medium-term inflation, when interest rates rising as high as 20,30% or more of the time, the high interest rates will be the buyers The and more people are panic selling, then price is an avalanche, its speed will make the stock market crash in the last round of the rate of decline on the Shanghai index to shame. If China's future can not be taken against the U.S. dollar crash timely and effective measures, in the next 3 years ago, the Housing drop in price to the current 50-70% in house prices is not inconceivable.
Therefore, it is yet to buy a house, especially those who accumulate the down payment by working hard, and people who borrowed huge loans in the future determined not to buy a house.'ve bought from people who live outside the property, should seriously consider selling. Because you do not buy a house, the worst result is wealth, but will not fall into the work of a number of years, a fund-raising for a house with young and old, the last anti-owed a huge amount of debt. This is the most unfair mm of a normal society is absolutely intolerable, and a sense of justice is absolutely intolerable. < br> So, one might ask, there is inflation expectations, can not buy a house, then what to buy to defend their wealth? just can not sit and watch their wealth now!
the best anti-inflation approach is to buy physical gold. Since July 2005 has been, I repeatedly stressed this point. Gold is still the current value of worldwide seriously underestimated one of the few investment goods. The reason is that U.S. forces behind the international bankers been vilified for decades to suppress the results.
author believes that the prices below $ 2,000 an ounce, gold is being seriously underestimated both the stage, can Jiancang purchase a variety of calculation methods show that the future international price of gold rose to 5000-6000 U.S. dollars per ounce, I would not be surprised.
recent years, with the system of international monetary and financial deepening, the author of important monetary gold, special features clearer understanding of the past few months , is concentrated systematically combing the essential relationship between gold and currency, the author of is a social cloud your right to choose; miss this book, you give up the wealth of self-determination , then some of the funds to purchase physical gold in reserve. I believe, now two kilograms of gold (at current prices about 43 million yuan) 3,5 years to buy a suite in the central city; a kilogram of gold (at current price of about 215 000) 3, after 5 years to buy a suite in the provincial capital city.
the house slaves do now, the future of the negative assets; or catch the return value of gold bull market, a wealth of current and future owner of this multiple-choice questions and mm Passage has been written here, decided to make your own, the fate of the future from the grasp of your own.
2009-10-19
we would like to lose the next 10 years, as the Japanese do?
room wealth of the Chinese real estate bubble has become the number one threat to
Zhang Tingbin
Chinese real estate bubble has been upgraded to the number one threat to the economic revival of civilization.
rise and social development of a country will always face challenges, the evolution of each types of redistribution of wealth, its success or failure Lidun then reflected in the economic and capital markets, there are winners and losers; a win-win, there will be a total lose.
most of the game only involves the redistribution of the local people's interests , I generally will not be too concerned about, because to admit that transfer of wealth has never been a moment stopped.
rational expectations despite the total win-win situation, but because of the greed and selfishness of human nature, the reality is often counterproductive, so although the comedy of human nature will not blindly luxury, but must not tolerate the emergence mm the vast majority of people suffer lose, very few people win, and even all the participants were great tragedy to lose.
lose a total disaster if it is imaginary? No, in the next three years, China and the world has this kinds of evil, the probability of fruit is not low. If the majority of Chinese people showed the serious wealth shrink, resulting in a lot of people find it difficult to maintain basic living standards, China will intensify the internal contradictions, it will even breakdown of Chinese society and sustainable development country's peaceful rise bottom line, as in Argentina after 1982, as Japan after 1990, lost the next 10 years, the revival of the Chinese civilization, more will lose the historic opportunity.
this will all mankind mean? In 1974, the great historian and philosopher of the last Toynbee in the well-prepared, over two thousand years has cultivated a unique perception of the Chinese nation. Confucian harmony between people, said the family's harmony with nature, people's physical and spiritual Buddhist harmony mm is a new global multi-polarization of the nuclear Warring States Period, the most precious spiritual wealth, only it is possible to digestion and integration external expansion of the internal desire to meet the expansion of plunder, Civilization will only be seen as inferior culture, and by the winner of the humiliation and abandonment. Thus, in my view, any attempt to destroy the power of rejuvenation of Chinese civilization are the future of peace can be the enemy continued to be a personal, future generations, the Chinese people, the world's enemies of the people, and their struggle has not compromise, not withdrawal of.
in the foreseeable future, what power can destroy the great rejuvenation of Chinese civilization, it?
have . First, the Taiwan Strait war or regional war in East Asia; Second, the paper money system crash crisis, battered by China, is nothing to recover; Third, China's largest real estate bubble burst in the crisis.
the three, the big parade demonstrated by China's military strength, the threat of war has not; U.S. dollar as the center of the collapse of the global paper money system, its response to the method is relatively simple, that is the official, large-scale financial institutions and civil society to increase their gold reserves, no other way . This huge risks over the past 4 years because of our repeated warnings, the increasing importance of all, the rise of folk craze gold reserves, and its intimidation are also declining. In particular I have recently published the The inevitability of the return of the monetary and financial attributes, the Chinese people in poor countries and the serious harm of gold, and people respond to the strategy, so that risk completely daylight, returned to China as an important asset of the public choose to self-determination, therefore, even if in the future Some people ignore the rejection, but by the bursting of the bubble notes serious loss of wealth, they are not attributable to the community and others, and become an excuse for harm social stability.
most troubling is that the hidden real estate bubble are increasingly amplified, if not decisive and effective containment of its continued expansion of the situation, such as further expansion of three years, will inevitably lead to a huge avalanche breakdown inevitably will be the economic revival of Chinese civilization, the bottom line, the worst is that it simultaneously with the collapse of the global notes hit, then the conflict will be an unprecedented intensification of China, China will inevitably be forced to pass out the social crisis by force, will result in the loss of a final peace the international community to force integration.
must not underestimate the crisis in the real estate bubble burst, the Housing real estate crisis in the economic and financial crisis has always been the core part of .1990 after the financial crisis in Japan, Japan's largest property prices fell 85%, triggering a credit crisis, a bottomless pit, and numerous financial institutions and real estate business bankruptcy. in 1997 -1998, during the Asian financial crisis, the largest Hong Kong property market plunged 70%, the number of 10 million dollars of home buyers become blowing hot and cold international hot money under the painful stock market bubble burst. The Shanghai Composite Index once plunged to 72.8%, peak flow of up to 7 trillion yuan of shares of wealth evaporate. but the people apparently did not learn this lesson.
If anything the consequences of the bubble burst more than A shares, so that the property market. because the A shares of wealth is the 10 trillion yuan level, while real estate is 100 trillion yuan level. A shares dropped over the past accumulation of wealth is lost, a large real estate down will not only lose the past, but will lose the next 10 years, their total expected income. as soon as the Japanese lost the next 10 years.
crazy real estate bubble now has almost as much as the spring of 2007 A-shares. into the second quarter of 2009, especially since obviously, the further escalation of the public real estate frenzy. In Hangzhou bus, almost everyone is talking about millions of properties to buy. Another ominous sign is that the Housing more and more real estate inside the player left of the public assets of the company mm including state-owned enterprises, listed companies and insurance funds mm most of their money is not the operators themselves, and speculative buyers, and its money mainly from the banks loans. This is the third quarter of 2008 before the U.S. housing bubble burst is quite similar to that of state and public wealth to be the last disk access and pay for those.
data in a variety of reason is to remind the real estate crisis looming mm from the Since the Asian financial crisis, domestic prices have risen more than 10 years, major urban centers has risen more than 10 times, third-tier cities housing prices also rose more than 3 times; price earnings ratio is much higher than international standards; rent yield well below the mortgage rates.
market signals good either public opinion, the property market who sing less and less space mm governments increasingly dilemma, the real estate business will not see the coffin seen tears, empty property market in the early to sing again and again predictions After the fall and no facial sing. This is a big bubble reflects the characteristics of the final stage, that is, when markets are no longer sing the air, the market will usher in the transition from the long to short.
If a real estate expansion cycle is divided into 10 stages, now about to enter the first eight stages, although the short-term outlook for home prices may still rise, but should rise 20-30% in the next 3 years will be a big real estate bubble burst, dropped 50% are considered fortunate to stop.
word, both for individuals and countries, and now is a real estate bubble, br> should now buy a house or buy gold?
read (626 839) Comments (1177) Published: 2009 11 月 09 日 16:38
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Recently, many people say to buy gold, because the sake of the financial crisis, only the gold bullion and reliable. It was also said to buy a house, but now prices are so high. in the end to buy a house good or better to buy gold? that it is now a consensus that can not be kept in cash, as more and more devalued. we do not discuss stock, and we discuss today's topic is gold and the house.
gold is not the insurance
early Republic, one or two of gold to buy two acres of farmland, five taels of gold to buy a Beijing courtyard. One hundred years later Today, one kilogram of gold equal to 25 million yuan, only buy a Beijing courtyard down the toilet. If you did not buy a hundred years ago in the courtyard, and save fifty-two gold, then you today is a very poor person. such a than we can understand why the Chinese people have this concept of home production. This idea is not groundless, but from historical data, that dynasty, is still awarded for a war the country is more in terms of real estate is relatively preservation. why, when we hit the economy in times of crisis, real estate prices always rise.

high house prices cheaper as a joke a few years ago was 12 in case the square of the Shanghai Tomson Riviera, a few years sell four sets. April this year we sold 16 units. We do not think these people are crazy, people do not buy a house is foolish, because the investment business environment degradation and excess capacity after the unlikely event that they actually buy the 12 level The Tomson Riviera, I believe that such a move will generate a new understanding of the people. Why do they do it. sure is, he thought that this is more than the cash in his hand and to preserve the value of the manufacturing sector than he did even have a future. These people can abandon their manufacturing and buy Tomson Riviera, it is clear that this super-expensive, very poor value for money than his Tomson Riviera, manufacturing, and other more profitable channels. In addition to the manufacturing sector funds, this year in the first half of the 7.37 trillion of bank credit, inevitably resulting in inflationary expectations. everyone will think that inflation is coming, the most correct approach is not to put money in a bank there. so a lot of hedge to avoid inflation funds to enter the property market.
Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, China, several major cities, a thousand is the most low-end rent. From the beginning in January 2006, these cities continue to rise in the rent to the 2008 wave is relatively small, to begin in May 2009, these four cities, low-grade rental real estate soared, so the most vulnerable of our society, the public low-grade real estate to rent, will pay a heavy price. the same time, high-end real estate rental service apartments in sharp decline, which means that the rich getting cheaper rent the house, the most money does not rent the villa price. The real price is that we are the poorest of the disadvantaged society groups, more than ten per cent rent rise.
recent Shanghai is still Grade A office rents have fallen sharply, to April 2009 is close to the bottom. Shenzhen is the same. on behalf of the purchasing power of the whole society is not the price, the rent . After our analysis, this conclusion, the high-end real estate rents fell, office rentals fell sharply, vulnerable groups in society only if we rent the whole rose sharply, which confirms the sentence: When the economic crisis, social wealth redistribution. end of this year or early next year, I was worried about another phenomenon, a result of inflation, further accelerated the redistribution of wealth. Only the rich, wealthy people most hedge against inflation by investing in real estate to hedge the high-end features, and we vulnerable groups of society unable to afford high-end real estate and become the biggest victims of inflation. So, inflation has not burst, you've seen the redistribution of social wealth. hardly reflected in the purchasing power index, in my analysis, for example, I think the rent is the best indicator of purchasing power.
inflation did not come before, social wealth has been transferred to the rich. because the house is a middle class to the community to rent, The reason why the propertied class, rent out the house, because they more than a house. there are several houses of the rich people who are social, these wealthy people even in time of recession to the vulnerable groups of society to increase the rent, and They can be purchased to hedge the effect of high-end real estate.
not yet entered in our country before inflation, the wholesale price of vegetable basket, pork prices, the price of eggs, so that the whole burden on vulnerable groups of society, coupled with rising rents, so that the heavier the burden on the community, high-end in the fall. This phenomenon has clearly tell you, even if inflation has not come yet, China has produced the wealth redistribution phenomenon. This phenomenon, if continued down, is called a serious inflation. coupled with our past has been difficult to pull the troika of China's economy, is called stagflation, any country to avoid entering into stagflation, stagnation Once all the whole there is a policy failure.
U.S. faster recovery of the two countries who we have to worry about the United States
? We do a comparison with the rent, we will find out who is at the edge of danger. American high school, low-grade rental real estate trend is extremely smooth, almost 20 years not up, nor have dropped off. If this is the phenomenon, you will find out there is no crisis. the nature of rent-stabilized What is the meaning behind? it is no change in real purchasing power of the United States. In this case the United States home prices down to the American people is good, for a purchasing power of the country did not fall, he should pick up and into recovery, he's a lot easier. while office rents fell sharply in China is that the purchasing power of companies fell sharply, mid-range service Apartment rents in the fall is that the purchasing power of China's wealthy population also declined, and rent decreased compared to the U.S. this is very scary, and it represents the real purchasing power of China in the fall, falling purchasing power of the rich, but also afraid that even the poorest people bear the burden of higher rents to the consequences of all this. The United States claims that they are not out of the financial tsunami are unfounded, because a lot of house prices fall, the rent has not changed, then the purchasing power of the whole society did not decline, in this case, the recovery is worth the wait. We will soon change that reverse redistribution of wealth phenomenon, do not wait until stagflation.
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